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How endangered is Roe v Wade?

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MANY times in his 30-year Supreme Court career Justice Anthony Kennedy gave the crucial fifth nod to a conservative ruling. But the biggest abortion cases were not among them. In 1992 he was the fifth vote in a ruling that reaffirmed Roe v Wade, the Supreme Court ruling from 1973 that declared abortion a constitutional right. In 2016 he played the same role in striking down a Texas law that restricted access to abortion.

His retirement has therefore sparked both hope and fear that whoever replaces him will join the court’s four conservative justices to overturn Roe. Long a professed aim of Republicans, this would not ban abortion. Rather, it would allow states to make their own abortion laws. But it would be momentous. For one thing, abortion would immediately become illegal in four states that have “trigger laws” awaiting such a ruling: Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota and South Dakota. How likely is this to happen?

A lot more likely than it was. During his presidential campaign Donald Trump promised he...Continue reading

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